Supplier Obligation Two Year Forecast

This dataset provides a forecast out to 2 years.

This dataset contains Interim Levy Rate , Total Reserve Amount, LCDCfD & CfD Payment forecasts, LCDCfD & CfD generation adjusted by TLM, RQM and CHPQM and aggregated Capacity, for six Quarterly Obligation Periods. Different levels of sensitivity have been applied on forecasting the figures and are termed as base case, low case, and high case sensitivities.

The base case assumes our best view of Start Dates and Market Reference Prices.

This dataset is updated following the end of each Quarterly Obligation Period.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field	Value
Last Updated	December 16, 2025, 17:19 (UTC)
Created	December 12, 2025, 17:45 (UTC)
CfD_Capacity	The total forecast maximum capacity of the active Supplier Obligation portfolio at the end of the Quarterly Obligation Period.
CfD_Generation	The generation volume of CfD generators as determined during the Two Year Forecast adjusted by TLM, RQM and CHPQM.
Forecast_CFD_Payments_GBP	The CfD payments which are expected to be paid to the generators based on the generation volume.
Forecast_LCDCFD_Payments_GBP	The LCDCfD payments which are expected to be paid to the generators based on the generation volume.
Interim Levy Rate_GBP_Per_MWh	Under the Supplier Obligation Levy, electricity suppliers make pre-payments consisting of a unit cost fixed Interim Levy Rate, charged at a daily £/MWh rate to fund the cost of Supplier Obligation generation payments. The Interim Levy Rate is set by LCCC every quarter, one quarter in advance, based on an estimate of the payments that will need to be made in respect of Supplier Obligation generation in that quarter.
LCDCfD_Generation	The generation volume of LCDCfD generators as determined during the Two Year Forecast adjusted by TLM, RQM and CHPQM.
Period End	End Date of the respective Quarterly Obligation Period.
Period Start	Start Date of the respective Quarterly Obligation Period.
Quarterly Obligation Period	A period of 3 months commencing after 31st March 2015 on 1st April, 1st July, 1st October or 1st January in any period of 12 months.
Sensitivity	Base Case / Low Case / High Case.
Total Reserve Amount_GBP	The amount LCCC determines is needed for there to be a 19 in 20 probability of it being able to make all the Supplier Obligation generation payments required during that quarter, having regard to: a)the amount of Interim Levy Rate payments which it expects to collect from suppliers during the quarter; b)the likelihood of any supplier failing to make payments during the quarter; and c)the estimated income to be received by the company from Supplier Obligation generators in the quarter, the estimated amount of electricity to be supplied by suppliers in the quarter and the estimated amount the company will need in the quarter to pay Supplier Obligation generators.