Forecast ILR TRA

This dataset provides a forecast out of 6 months.

This dataset contains Interim Levy Rate , Total Reserve Amount and CfD Payment forecasts for two Quarterly Obligation Periods. It also contains the Eligible Demand for the whole Quarterly Obligation Period.

This dataset is updated following the end of each Quarterly Obligation Period.

Please note that our forecasts simulate hourly prices across multiple scenarios, and the published prices represent the averages derived from these simulations over the quarter. Consequently, the capture price differences cannot be back-calculated from these averaged values as this detailed information is lost in the hourly averaging process over the simulations, but are taken into account in individual simulations.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field Value
Last Updated February 15, 2024, 15:22 (UTC)
Created October 17, 2023, 16:01 (UTC)
Eligible Demand (MWh) Supplier's Gross Demand less both Energy Intensive Industries demand and Green Excluded Electricity demand.
Forecast Accrued BMRP The Baseload Market Reference Price (BMRP) is calculated on a seasonal basis pursuant to condition 15 of the Contract for Difference Standard Terms and Conditions. Baseload prices are calculated using a traded volume weighted average based on forward season data received from LEBA. The BMRP is published in April and October of each year.
Forecast Accrued IMRP Intermittent Market Reference Prices (IMPR) are used to calculate CfD Generator payments. Under the CfD, when the reference price for the electricity generated by a CfD Generator is below the strike price set out in their contract, payments are made by the LCCC to the CfD Generator to make up the difference between the reference and the strike price. The Intermittent Market Reference Price is calculated using day-ahead data received from EPEX Spot and NordPool. An IMRP is calculated for every hour of the day.
Interim Levy Rate Under the Supplier Obligation Levy, electricity suppliers make pre-payments consisting of a unit cost fixed Interim Levy Rate, charged at a daily £/MWh rate to fund the cost of CfD generation payments. The Interim Levy Rate is set by LCCC every quarter, one quarter in advance, based on an estimate of the payments that will need to be made in respect of CfD generation in that quarter.
Period End End Date of the respective Quarterly Obligation Period
Period Start Start Date of the respective Quarterly Obligation Period
Quarterly Obligation Period A period of 3 months commencing after 31st March 2015 on 1st April, 1st July, 1st October or 1st January in any period of 12 months
Total Reserve Amount The amount LCCC determines is needed for there to be a 19 in 20 probability of it being able to make all the CfD generation payments required during that quarter, having regard to: a)the amount of Interim Levy Rate payments which it expects to collect from suppliers during the quarter; b)the likelihood of any supplier failing to make payments during the quarter; and c)the estimated income to be received by the company from CfD generators in the quarter, the estimated amount of electricity to be supplied by suppliers in the quarter and the estimated amount the company will need in the quarter to pay CfD generators.