Historic Advanced Forecasts

This dataset provides historic forecast data.

Different levels of sensitivity have been applied on forecasting the figures and are termed as base case, low case, and high case sensitivities.

The base case assumes our best view of Start Dates and Market Reference Prices. The low case sensitivity adopts the same assumptions as for the base case, but with the assumption that all CfDs expected to generate in the forecast period commence CfD generation six months after the Start Date or an alternative later start date assumption of the base case. It also assumes an increase to power market prices over the period covered by the advanced forecast. The high case sensitivity adopts the same assumptions as for the base case, but with the exception that it assumes that all CfDs expected to generate in the forecast period commence CfD generation two months prior to the Start Date or an alternative early start date assumption of the base case. It also assumes a decrease to power market prices over the period covered by the advanced forecast.

This dataset includes all historic Advanced Forecasts published from September 2015. The prevailing Advanced Forecast can be found in the Advanced Forecast ILR TRA dataset. Once the prevailing advanced forecast is superseded, the outgoing forecast will be amended to the Historic Advanced Forecast dataset.

The Historic Advanced Forecasts dataset includes both the Advanced Forecast ILR TRA dataset and the previous 15 Month Forecast ILR TRA dataset.

This dataset is updated following the end of each Quarterly Obligation Period.

Data and Resources

Additional Info

Field	Value
Last Updated	October 1, 2024, 14:31 (UTC)
Created	October 17, 2023, 16:00 (UTC)
Forecast CfD Capacity (MW)	The total forecast maximum capacity of the active CfD portfolio at the end of the Quarterly Obligation Period
Forecast CfD Generation (MWh)	The total generation forecast for the CfD portfolio for the Quarterly Obligation Period, adjusted by TLM, RQM and CHPQM
Forecast CfD payments	The CfD payments which are expected to be paid to the generators based on the generation volume
Forecast Month	The month and year of the forecast
Interim Levy Rate	Under the Supplier Obligation Levy, electricity suppliers make pre-payments consisting of a unit cost fixed Interim Levy Rate, charged at a daily £/MWh rate to fund the cost of CfD generation payments. The Interim Levy Rate is set by LCCC every quarter, one quarter in advance, based on an estimate of the payments that will need to be made in respect of CfD generation in that quarter.
Market Price Multiplier	The power market prices increase/decrease assumed over the period covered by the advanced forecast.
Period End	End Date of the respective Quarterly Obligation Period
Period Start	Start Date of the respective Quarterly Obligation Period
Quarterly Obligation Period	A period of 3 months commencing after 31st March 2015 on 1st April, 1st July, 1st October or 1st January in any period of 12 months
Sensitivity	Base Case/ Low Case/High Case
Total Reserve Amount	The amount LCCC determines is needed for there to be a 19 in 20 probability of it being able to make all the CfD generation payments required during that quarter, having regard to: a)the amount of Interim Levy Rate payments which it expects to collect from suppliers during the quarter; b)the likelihood of any supplier failing to make payments during the quarter; and c)the estimated income to be received by the company from CfD generators in the quarter, the estimated amount of electricity to be supplied by suppliers in the quarter and the estimated amount the company will need in the quarter to pay CfD generators.